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into account in judging between incumbent barack obama and his challenger mitt romney. that is the jinx of the second term on many presidents. only seven of 19 presidents elective to a second term avoided having a troubled or failed second term. that would give the country about a 38% chance of obama and the nation experiencing an improved security and economic climate after four years if obama is reelected. i do not suggest the gamble should not be taken. simply that history interplay in with politics might give us pause. what does history predict about a second term for barack obama? were he reelected with so few presidents having success at that time in office? what are the challenges that face those who had troubled or failed second terms? what allowed others to succeed? can barack obama overcome these challengess if he is reelected to become a member of that select group of presidents that waded through the quagmire of a second term and somehow came through relatively unscathed? success in a second term does not imply there were not failures or significant stumbles. some even sever
of absentee voting, the president's marginal grow a bit and i think we'll end up with a margin between obama and romney about 3.5%. so still close but not racist impose a not as close as we might've been talking about for a good deal of the election. i think of something right about all the model going on. i know a lot of people talked about that. i want to give a little shout out to many political scientist. i'm a political scientist. sometimes i'm critical of some of their models, but political models try to predict what happens in elections and they usually have some very simple components. how the president is doing. the growth in the economy. not the state of the economy. not the number of unemployment at how we've been improving over the are, and incumbents usually accounts or something. if you look at this election you can say a little bit of growth matters. a president who was sort of in the middle, 48, 49% job approval rating for much of this year, and about 1.5% growth, we add that with an income, you probably get a winner of 3% and that's what many of the models looked like. a lot
year, growth will shot up in 83. so obama policy must be worse than reagan's. centiseconds longer time. a different kind of recession. when there's a credit crunch comes when it's hard to get a credit, the financial sector up and running again, traditionally those take a longer time to get out of. the great depression, for example, took years to get out of, but fdr came in with unemployment at 25%. by the first of his first year it was more like 17. people said hey, that's better than we were. let's keep it going in this direction. and what we have with recovery act is a bottom-up response from primitive we need government to do something. this is not been shut country and shut down our throats. do that the private sector's not going to do it. because they're being battered by this credit crunch, by the collapse of the banks. the public sector major entity of last resort come to step in and prevent everything from going worse. so now at a place where we're not freefalling, but we are still not where we could be and should be. there's lots of things that we need to do to be in a better
authors, "barack obama: the story," his book, first half of the two volume biography of the president. "the new deal: hidden story of change in the obama era," and the t.a.r.p. administrator writing an inside account of the experience called "bailout" so right now, that's beginning in a few minutes, but right now, we'll watch mr. patterson live here in miami. [inaudible conversations] >> hey, up there, yeah, yeah, yeah, if you come up there we'll do it. byrn-- bye-bye, thank you. you're going to the wrong one. [inaudible conversations] feels like one of those movies. [inaudible conversations] okay. right here? yeah, if you could, that would be great. okay. hi. here you go. first in the line, excellent. [inaudible conversations] thank you, thank you. hi. hi, how are you? >> okay, good. >>ed -- good. >> thank you so much. >> this is probably worth a little money. hi, how are you? >> nice to meet you. >> nice to meet you. [inaudible conversations] from the miami area? >> no, i drove down here from clearwater. >> wow happen how long is drive is that? >> about five hours. >> really? wow. w
that was not a commercial, but it has to do with mitt romney's fundraising and the obama campaign decided use that footage in a series of ads. there are about five or six different ads that the obama campaign created using 47%. i will show you one example. >> ♪ ♪ >> [inaudible] >> if you think that half of the country are feeling like victims, i would not say victims. i don't think that's part of the american fabric. >> this is a web ad. this is not the day after the video emerged. this thing, more than ever, these ads are coming out almost instantaneously. i don't even think you talk about new cycle anymore, it's just nonstop. it is an endless stream of news. but that number, 47%, stuck with me. i remember that there was an advertisement against mcgovern, because we have to show another attack ad against him. but when i heard this attack ad, i thought, where did i hear this before? this is an advertisement, another attack ad from the nixon campaign. it also talks about 47%. >> george mcgovern recently submitted a welfare bill to congress. according to an analysis by the senate finance committee, the
unparalleled success. at the u.n. lasher president obama spoke strongly about this thing that the u.s. will support a free and open internet so individuals have information to make up their own money. no one has been more forceful advocate of the economic and social opportunities of the open internet and secretary of state hillary clinton. who delivered a landmark speech of internet freedom in 2010 when she said one of the fundamental freedoms of the internet age was the freedom to connect. the idea that governments should not prevent people from connecting to the internet to websites, or to each other. now, internet freedom is sometimes cited as an obstacle to addressing the issues of cybersecurity and intellectual property theft. i disagree with the. i disagree not because i question the importance of the issues of the magnitude of the threat your very serious problems that we have to address. but i believe based on my experience that we can address those issues without undermining the core values like internet freedom and privacy. we've put our money where our mouths are at the f
now we'll have live coverage as president obama delivers a statement from the white house east room about the economy and reducing the deficit. live coverage for you on our cam pan yonnet work c-span at 1:05 eastern today. >> if there is a mandate in yesterday's results there is mandate for to us find a way to work together on the solutions on the challenges we all face as a nation. my message is not juan of confrontation but one of conviction. in the weeks and months ahead we face a serious of tremendous challenges and great opportunity. >> the american people want us to work together. republicans want us to work together. democrats want us to work together. they want a balanced approach to everything but especially this situation that we have dealing with the huge deficit and taxes that are part of that. >> the newly-elected congress starts work in january but the current congress still has work to do through the end of the year what is typically referred to as a lame-duck session. work is expected on the impending fiscal cliff including expiration of bush-era tax cuts, federal de
up with anything that is beyond congress's power. >> your response to president obama's appointments of three individuals, after some initial votes, all the nominees, some of them came up with and i was wondering, the assurances given that that will not repeat and that is why it is more flexible later on, and will there be a similar response from you or your colleagues or both of you should senator reid decide to filibuster at the beginning of the thirteenth congress? >> the recess appointment issue, this was an important issue for me. when president obama made four appointments that he identified as recess appointments on january 4th, 2012, 3 to the nlrb and one beating richard coeur dray to head the consumer financial protection bureau. he wrote with precedent, people from both parties have been responding to this by saying every president or nearly every president has made recess appointment. the other party always complained get over it, grow up. those who say that overlook something important. this one was unprecedented because as far as i have been able to ascertain through my
for either mr. obama or mr. romney as president beginning in january, 2013 they've repeatedly stated by both of them that a iranian nuclear weapon would be unacceptable, and of course there have them statements here on the hill by congress along the same sorts of lines that wouldn't necessarily have to be a problem given that there is no indication to date as our intelligence agencies tell us that iran has decided so far to build a nuclear weapon but certain aspects of the nuclear program particularly enrichment of uranium have come to be perceived in the the date as having a degree of on accepted devotee of their own and of course the israeli prime minister talks about this constantly to the red line and so forth and having the situation turn into a disaster for whoever's administration it is is a problem mainly of political constraints here in this country rather than any lack of negotiating space between iran and the p5+1 in the united states. he would have to have an agreement allowing some uranium enrichment probably at the no more than 5% level. the outline of the agreement are pretty
bush was there, the patriot act, to put people away without due process. obama has said we can imprison american citizens. not just enemy combatants, but citizens. never any questions asked. how do you see with obama now doing bush on things with the continuation of undeclared wars, how do you see foreign policy from a liberal perspective considering that obama has considered so many of his predecessors policies and expand on them. >> obama himself has not interpreted it as saying that we have the right to be maki said that we have the power, but i won't do it. >> i don't think that's quite accurate. it's a very vague sentence in the bill, it said any more power that is specifically about foreign terrorists, that they have the right to take american citizens willy-nilly indefinitely. having said that, there really isn't a singular liberal foreign policy. there are different strains in both parties and both ideologies. there are some people on the left who are angry at obama for the things the state and the things that have to do with the extensions of bush. some don't see it that way. t
. this is an appropriate day for talking about "regulating to disaster" because president obama promised once more to develop the energy sources of the future. when any administration, republican or democrat decides to develop energy projects, taxpayers had better watch out. governments get in the business of picking winners and losers which leads to cronyism and wasted taxpayer dollars. this is the question of industrial policy, whether government should support business ventures in new technologies that are unable to secure private funding. government appears to be worse at this than private markets from the records we have over the past five years. in contrast in a speech in california in may, mitt romney said, quote, the president doesn't understand when you invest like that in one solar energy company it makes it harder for solar technology generally because the other entrepreneurs in the solar field suddenly lost their opportunity to get capital. who wants to put money into a solar company when the government put half a billion dollars into one of its choice. excellent question. i wrote this
. >> senator, you were, perhaps, responding to president obama's support of three individuals -- as all nominees, voted to hop nor some that came up later on, and so i was wondering, one, ashunses giving that will not repeat and perhaps flexible later on, and, two, is there a source to respond either from you or your colleagues or both of you should senator reid decide to preet and change the filibuster rule at the beginning of the 113th congress? >> okay. so, first, as to the recess appointments issue. this was app important issue for me. when president obama made four appointments that he identified as recessed appointments on january 4, 2012, three to the nlrb and one being richard cordray to head up the consumer financial protection bureau. he broke with precedent. people from both parties have been fawned of responding to this by saying, look, every president or nearly every president has made recessed appointments. the other party always complains. get over it. grow up. those who say that overlook something important. it's unprecedented. as far as i can ascertain in the research,
won ohio, turns out the electoral vote count would have gone to president obama. we lost by two points in ohio. recall back in 2004 when john kerry lost to george bush he would often say both publicly and to me on the floor of the senate, but for half the people that could fit in the ohio state stadium called the horseshoe i would be president today. it was a very narrow victory. i do think there were some reasons that are almost technical that some of you understand well. there are some folks here from silicon valley who are very good at social media and their turnout efforts, the democrats, were quite effective. if you look at the numbers, after the fact, the turnout for democrats among their base was better than we expected. i would say better than they expected based on their polling and their sampling. so, you know, they did a better job than we did getting their voters to the polls. mitt romney got fewer votes than john mccain in ohio and still came within two points. the technology included so-called orca system. some of you maybe read about that in the last couple days which wa
. electing president obama, if you remember, if you go back to win, leading up to and when he announced his support for marriage equality, one you had many people just asking the question. is this going to be good? is this going to be bad? than you had our opponents saying the doom and gloom scenario suggesting to other politicians that they follow the president's lead and they will follow it right into retirement. one of my favorites that became a pet project of mine and many of you probably got my fundraising call before this little race in iowa, justice wiggins was on the ballot for -- in iowa. our opposition, the three judges on the iowa supreme court ever up in, the national organization for marriage spent $1 million to keep them and did so by 10 or 15 points. justice wiggins was the fourth judge on the ballot this november was made their priority as well. they spent hundreds of thousands of dollars and they campaigned across the strait and had us trips across the state. we went in with some lawyers that were there in the state and a partner in the campaign and we save justice wiggins.
:leaning. as you're listening to the campaign rhetoric, do you think one side -- does obama seem more likely than romney to solve any of the problems. >> the coverage of the election has nothing to do with what's really going on here at all. first of all, the romney-ryan plan would eliminate took capital. ryan would eliminate all tax on capital. romney would for everybody who has more than 12.5 million of wealth. up to that point you wouldn't be taxed. that's ha system that says we're going to let the already rich live tax free and put all the tax on con expulsion on labor, specially on labor. we're going further the policy of shifting things down, and i believe it would lead to dynastic wealth and leave the situation where the entrepreneurial spirit is stalled and killed but it's the newcomer, the guy who grew up without any money and makes a success of himself who makes the economy grow. not the person who grew up with a silver spoon in their mouth. and we would become like 18th 18th century france, and your economics were determined by who you picked as your parents -- and i mean that to sound
as it appears and is widely reported and claimed by the obama administration. and secondly getting us into the more specific question of drones. this has been the controversial tool that has in many ways gotten us where we are and you have written extensively about it. how would you say we stand on the drum process and pakistan? >> thank you for those questions and for the opportunity to talk to this distinguished audience and distinguished panel. what we have accomplished is osama bin laden himself. if you look at the documents released from abbottabad they fit well with any expert analysis of al qaeda which is al al qaeda is in deep, deep, has a deep set of problems. the al qaeda brand is deeply damaged. he was telling other affiliates of al qaeda not to use the name al qaeda and it would be bad for fundraising and attract negative attention. he was keenly aware of how much damage the drum program was doing and advocating al qaeda move from western pakistan to kunar which is one of the most heavily forested and mountainous areas of afghanistan, difficult or american surveillance to
things? is the dream still alive? at the time, and still today, president obama's in the white house, and he's building a legacy of big government. at the same time, american families are worried about one thing -- if they have a job, worried about keeping it, and if they don't have a job, they are worried about getting a job, but in the last four years, what's happened? there was a focus on obamacare, and just constant spending, spending, spending. when i ran for governor in 2010, florida was in a similar position. we had one of the highest unemployment rates in the country. we lost over 700,000 jobs in the four years before that, our debt was going up, relied on the stimulus, but the biggest thing was we were losing jobs all the time. regulation was getting worse, and so the dream was going away, and florida should be the state where you can live the american dream. housing prices collapsed. everybody was worrieded about the future. having lived the american dream, i ran because i'm worried about it for our children. we have two daughters, 27 and 30. we have a grand son. i'm worrie
grand? we, according to press reports, president obama would like to have a grand bargain. the most familiar template of a grand bargain is the simpson-bowles plan written by the two co-chairs of the presidential commission on the budget whose members rejected the very plan that the co-chairs wrote. this is now being pushed by a coalition called fix the debt funded by the billionaire. pete peterson to the tune funded by a number of different corporations particularly in the financial industry but not exclusively. the basic them -- template of that and similar grand bargain deals is that in return for averting the fiscal cliff, averting what some have called more accurately the austerity bomb in the near future, congress will agree to long-term cuts in entitlements which do not include tax expenditures even though people are entitled to them, but they do include social insurance programs as monique pointed out. social insurance, medicare and medicaid. so this all the different versions of a grand bargain, long-term cuts to social security and medicare and medicaid are considered part
. and a speech he gave in new york to lead the way i like to think about is we can remember barack obama's speech in 2004 in the democratic national convention that makes him a national figure in four years later without that speech he isn't a candidate so lincoln gives a speech in new york where it is a beautiful testament to the quality of lincoln's mind in the research he does. it's a fantastic speech. but when he ran for the senate, when barack obama gave a speech in 2004 he was running for the senate in illinois and he won. abraham lincoln ran for the senate in illinois and he lost. you think about abraham lincoln in 1860 think about barack obama running for the presidency in 2008 if he had lost, not if he had won it. that is the level of the national security that we are talking about to read the republican national committee votes for the election and the town's 60. lincoln is from illinois. huge home town advantage but the reason the committee put it in chicago by one vote, they voted to put it in chicago by one vote it could've been in misery because no candidates were from illinois of i
? >> sure. look at what's happened over the past four years. president obama came in, gdp collapsing, negative 8%, losing 3 million jobs per month. the economy in free fall. you know, moderates creeing, we're not where we want to be, status quo is not desiredded, but relative to where we were four years, 2% growth now versus negative 8, that's a good direct you want to be in. this is typical of financial crisis. it's different than other kinds of cyclical recessions. look at the reagan recession of 82, for example, and say, that really bounced back within a year, growth shot up in 83 so obama's policies has to be worse than reagans because it's taking longer. it's a different recession. there's a credit crunch, hard to get credit, get the financial sector up and running again, traditionally, those take a long time to dig out of it. great depression, for example, you know, took years to get out of, but fdr came in with unemployment at 25% by the end of the first term, more like 17, people said, hey, that better than we were. keep going in this direction. what we have with the recovery
rhetoric do you think one side, does obama seem more likely than romney to solve the problems. >> guest: the coverage has nothing to do with what is going on at all. first of all the plan eliminates all taxes on lap capital and everybody that has 12 and a half million dollars of wealth. and people -- that this is the system that says let's deal for the rich live tax and we are going to further the policy shifting things down and i believe there would lead to wealth and the situation where the entrepreneurial spirit is killed because it's the newcomer but grew up like i did that makes the success of himself and makes the economy grow and we would become like 18th-century france and your economics were determined by who you picked up as your parents, your gender and birth order. obama is actually the most business friendly president in the american history and i realize people were listening to this saying what? 100%. not under obama. 30% bonus for a single year. in the current economic environment it may be to encourage more capital investment. i think we need to discuss whether we want
and all is coming at a time when the obama administration has cut the defense budget, projecting over the ten-year period by some $487 billion and if the obama sequestration were to become a reality that would be a trillion dollars over this period of time coming out of our defense budget, even -- even the secretary of defense, the obama secretary of defense said it would be devastating. he used the word devastating. if that were not enough the obama administration continues to force the military to spend greater proportions of its already depleted funds on a gene energy agenda to include the purchase of biofuels for operational use in construction of commercial biofuel refineries. now, you know, i fully support development and use of alternative fuels including klug biofuels but not at the expense of the military. the focus should be on the readiness of the navy, not on propping up the biofuels industry. i have to remind everyone, we've a bureaucracy called the department of energy. they're the ones supposed to be doing all this experimentation we talk about. the navy according to th
americans. members of congress plan to meet at the white house with president obama about fiscal issues. on how members of congress and how the president could approach the so-called fiscal cliff with tax breaks and spending cuts. they hosted senators. [no audio] >> majority leader compared the job to being a grounds keeper in a cemetery. there's a lot of people under you, but they are not paying attention. >> that's true. [laughter] and then from the democratic side, we have a former budget committee chairman, senator gym sasser, please, come up and join us. [applause] hi. [applause] if there is one job in the senate that's worse than majority leader, it's being the budget committee chairman, but senator deserves credit for the -- partial credit for the 1990 budget deal which was really -- sit right here -- which was really an extraordinary -- probably the one deal in recent decades with a significant impact on the deficit, and then we have senator joe lieberman, please, come up. [applause] senator lieberman has the distinction of being the only person in the country who was invited to
at it strategically, do you feel that those are the core issues before president obama and this administration and our country going into 2013? um, if not, what would you change, what would you add? >> i -- when i was informed by lori murray about the outcome of the process by which the world affairs councils went through and came up with those six issues, i thought you had it exactly right. i think those are the big issues, and congratulations to you. i think you have them just right. i think there is an overarching issue on top of all of them that in some sense effects and enables all of them x that is if you look at at the national security challenges and the foreign policy challenges we face, i say that the number one challenge is getting our fiscal house in order. getting a handle on the debt, getting a handle on the deficit which are critical in order to get the economy growing again and people back to work. and i think that is the over -- it's certainly the number one domestic challenge. my point is it's always the number one national security challenge. why? because a healthy economy and a hea
the obama and george w. bush adds -- administrations talk about student exchange programs, social media, and voice of america broadcasts. from george washington university, this is a little less than two hours. >> i think it's going to be a great event. judith jumped the line at union station and aannoyed probably 150 people to get here. >> [inaudible] >> that's action. i hope they were not from other countries. i'm a professor here at gw and director for institute for public diplomacy and education hosting this event. find us on twitter. we're also on facebook, and we're also hosting a conversation on twitter about this event, hash tag ipdgc, and i welcome you to participate in that happen what i'm going to do to get this rolling is give brief introductions and bios for the great panel here and get going into the discussion, and we have a lot of interesting people in the room so i know we have to leave time for discussion. first, we have ambassador glassman, executive the george w. bush institute. after a long career in journalism, served as sunder ceo tear of state for public diplomac
. the speech he gave in new york, the way i like to think about it is we all remember barack obama speech in 2004. this dazzling rhetorical masterpiece that instantly makes him a national figure and four years later without that speech is not a plausible candidate. lincoln gives a dazzling speech in new york at the cooper union. it's a beautiful testament to the quality of lincoln's research he does. it's it is well worthy of praise but when he ran for the senate when barack obama gave a speech in 2004 he was running for the senate in illinois and he one. abraham lincoln ran for the senate in illinois and he lost. if you want to think about abraham lincoln in 1860 think about barack obama running for the presidency in 2008. if he had lost the illinois senate election, none of the iguana, that is the level of national security we are talking about here. the republican national committee votes to put the republican convention in chicago so in illinois lincoln -- lincoln is from illinois, the land of lincoln. a huge hometown advantage but the reason the committee puts it in chicago by one fo
i think about it is we can remember barack obama's speech in 2004, this -- the democratic national convention, a dazzling rhetorical masterpiece making him a national figure, and four years later, was without that speech, he's not a candidate for the presidency. lincoln gives a dazzling speech in new york, the cooper union speech. it is a beautiful testament to the quality of lincoln's minute, the research he does, the logical argument. it's a great speech. well worthy of praise, but when he ran for the senate, when barack obama gave a speech in 2004, he was running for the senate in illinois and won. lincoln ran for the senate in illinois, and he lost. did you want to think about lincoln in 1860, think about barack obama running for the presidency in 2008, if he had lost the illinois senate election, not if he had won it. that's the level of national obscurity we are talking about here. the election itself, the republican national committee, votes to put the republican convention in chicago in 1860. lincoln's from illinois, huge hometown advantage for lincoln, but the reason the c
would help the president obama gives this book to everyone in his staff possibly everyone involved in asia policy . it's very, very important. up important book for policy makers and is simply an important but to understand the dimensions of this human tragedy thank you for coming today. thank you for your wonderful book. [applause] >> is there a nonfiction author were booked you would like to see featured? send us an e-mail. tweet us. >> and now live from miami, tom will speaks about his latest novel during the opening night of the 2012 miami book fair international. the novel presents the take on the city of miami, is interviewed by former miami mayor and takes questions from the book fai
obama allows it to happen, what kind of catastrophe are you talking about? i'm kind of concerned? so negatively will this affect the industry? how bad will it really be out there on wall street and main street? >> guest: well, let's say there are a bunch of people where the congress is involved, democrats and republicans have a role to play in whether we resolve this or not. the fact that we litigate to this extent, we are leaving the american people what the risks exposed with the fiscal squibb on time, it wants be outraged that it's generated. the fiscal cliff is a problem. you go over the cliff and the consequences can be beautiful% of gdp growth due to automatic cuts by six or $700 billion. the day after that, the market could fall seven or 800 points but washington will get the message. what i fear and what i think is the risk is that they will fix it with a patch that is short-term, it's not substantive, it doesn't have a lot of nutritional content to it and we are going to be right back in again and again. markets will lose confidence. we will gradually lose our global credibi
] [applause] and according to the official final florida total, barack obama did when the state of florida narrowly edging out al gore. [laughter] another proud moment for our state, our straight motto is florida, you can't spell it without the -- duh. actually if you go to the dade county election bureau official web site and it says election ready. it does. it says those words again, and doesn't almost seem impossible that this could happen? it was 12 years ago and everybody remembers 2000 where a lot of floridians could not figure out which hole, remember because there were arrows on the ballot and if you drive the arrows are a very confusing concept. to the people of florida. if you are in a left turn lane with an arrow on it, pointing left and you are behind your cards, usually two people in a 1998 hewitt -- [laughter] there is an arrow pointing left and the light changes and there is a green arrow pointing left. in the lane they light usually says left turn. >> debut have to wait a couple of -- a couple of cycles. so what i wanted to do and i was hoping we would do is to make it more
Search Results 0 to 30 of about 31 (some duplicates have been removed)